General Information

We are delighted to announce the call for submissions for the upcoming Conference on Probabilistic Reasoning in the Sciences, to be held at the Marche Polytechnic University (Ancona, Italy) from August 29th to 31st, 2024.

The conference aims to explore and discuss various aspects of probabilistic reasoning within scientific inquiry and will serve as the kick-off event for the “Controlling and Utilizing Uncertainty in the Health Sciences” project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Research (Principal Investigators: Alexander Gebharter and Lorenzo Rossi), as well as the new Center for Philosophy, Science, and Policy (CPSP) at the Marche Polytechnic University.

Keynote speakers who have already confirmed their participation: 

• Leah Henderson, University of Groningen (canceled)
• Saana Jukola, University of Twente
• David Papineau, King’s College London
• Jan-Willem Romeijn, University of Groningen
• Elliott Sober,  University of Wisconsin
• Jan Sprenger, University of Turin
• Katya Tentori, University of Trento

Organizers: Michał Sikorski, Alexander Gebharter, & Barbara Osimani

Please submit an abstract of no more than 500 words, formatted for a blind review, via the following Google form:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfTeIfuj_UiOLCbMYP7LcySuWIA8LglG-rCWaLBGtrK0jUrqQ/viewform?usp=sf_link

Abstracts are due May 31th, 2024.

After the conference, we will invite authors to submit their work to a topical collection covering the conference’s themes in one of the respected philosophical journals. We will be aiming for Synthese.

Program

29 August

Time	A1	T37
10.45	Opening & BPA
11.00	Keynote lecture: Causal Inference and the Metaphysics of Causation, David Papineau
12.30	Lunch
14.00	Section A (chair: Jan Sprenger)	Section B (chair: Aviezer Tucker)
	Redefining Representativeness in Causal Terms, Michał Sikorski, Alexander Gebharter, Barbara Osimani	A logical framework for data-driven inference Hykel Hosni, Paolo Baldi, Esther Anna Corsi
	Disagreement over Scarce Evidence, Giacomo Molinari	From Frege to Frontloading: The New Age of Enumerative Induction, Fabian Pregel
	Probabilistic interpretations of illocutionary acts in scientific reasoning, Daniele Chiffi, Massimiliano Carrara, Ciro De Florio	Analogical reasoning, Abduction and Norton’s Material Theory of Induction, Yeongseo Yeo
15.30	Coffee Break
16.00	Keynote lecture: Evidence, uncertainty, and public health policies, Saana Jukola

Time	A1	T37
9.30	Keynote lecture: Counterfactual and Probabilistic Reasoning, Jan Sprenger
11.00	Coffee break
11.30	Section A	Section B (chair: Yeongseo Yeo)
	From Frequentist Explanations to Expectations, Mario Hubert	Abductive and Probabilistic Approaches to Reverse Inference in Neuroscience, Davide Coraci
	Making Room for Non-Bayesian Explanatory Inferences, Yunus Prasetya	Probabilistic Reasoning in Qualitative Interpretive Methods, Corrado Matta
12.30	Lunch
14.00	Section A	Section B (chair: Saana Jukola)
	Practical foundations for probability: Prediction methods and calibration, Benedikt Höltgen	Conflicts of interest and scientific integrity in biomedical sciences: a regulatory agenda for the post-pandemic era Nicola Matteucci
	Against standardising mean differences, Ina Jäntgen	The Misinterpretation Effect: How Scientists Can Benefit from Misinterpreting Evidence, Matteo Michelini
15.00	Coffee Break
15.30	Section A	Section B
	Game Theory in International Relations: A Useful Method or Not?, Michael Haiden	Unbiased Nonsense and Randomized Experiments,  Konstantin Genin, Conor Mayo-Wilson
	The formal epistemology of scientific revolutions, Peter Brössel	Learning Coherent Information: On Data Collection via Coherence, Edoardo Baccini, Zoé Christoff, Ludi van Leeuwen and Rineke Verbrugge
16.30	Short Coffee Break
16.45	Keynote lecture: Statistical evidence, Jan-Willem Romeijn
19.30	Conference Dinner

Time	A1	T37
9.30	Keynote lecture: Promoting a culture of uncertainty to reduce biases in medical reasoning, Katya Tentori
11.00	Coffee break
11.30	Section A (chair: Ina Jäntgen)	Section B
	Deliberation and Consensus, Dominik Klein	Probabilistic Synergetic Information and Goal-Directed Development, Tiago Rama
	Historiographic Probabilistic Reasoning, Aviezer Tucker	Avoiding the Risk of Judgement Manipulation by Pooling Odds with Two Weighted Geometric Means, Pavel Janda
12:30	Lunch
14:00	Section A	Section B
	Beta Distributions: an application to well-being measurement, Mariateresa Ciommi	On the effectiveness of Rapid Antigen Test kits in measuring the spread of SARS-CoV-2, Aldo Dragoni
14.30	Short Coffee Break
14.45	Keynote lecture: Darwin, Common Ancestry, and the Law of Likelihood, Elliott Sober
16.15	Closing

Conference Dinner Venue

Osteria Del Baffo: https://www.facebook.com/OsteriadelBaffo/

After Conference Activity

The Conero Riviera is a sinuously shaped promontory, sculpted by the winds that blow from Monte Conero towards the Adriatic Sea. Discover this stretch of the Marche coastline from the perspective of the sea with a motorboat tour.

From Ancona you will sail offshore, spotting the most beautiful caves and beaches in the area, from Ancona’s Marina Dorica tourist port to the Two Sisters Beach via Portonovo Bay. Here you can dive into the turquoise sea or snorkel in search of colourful fish and sea creatures.

What we will do:

Departure is scheduled at 10.00 am, 1st of September from the port of Marina Dorica in Ancona. Once everyone has boarded our motor vessel equipped with every comfort, the tour of the Conero Riviera will begin.

We will sail along the south coast, off the caves and beaches that characterise the most beautiful coastline of the Middle Adriatic. The Conero Park will open up before our eyes, with its pale rocks contrasting with the green vegetation.

We will see the Spiaggia della Scalaccia (Scalaccia Beach) and the Spiaggia di Mezzavalle (Mezzavalle Beach) from the sea, before meeting the Scogli delle Due Sorelle (Two Sisters’ Rocks), where we will make our first swimming stop. Here we can dive in for a refreshing swim or relax on board. Around 1pm, you will also be able to have lunch on board (buffet included), with fish starters, salads, typical local products and a small bottle of water per person.

Afterwards, we will resume sailing in the direction of Trave/Mezzavalle Bay, where we will stop for a second swim. Once back on board, we will set off on our return journey and do nothing but relax lulled by the waves.

The return to Ancona is scheduled for 17.00 hours, for a total duration of 7 hours

Scientific Committee

• Pierpaolo Battigalli
• Giovanni Boniolo
• Stefano Canali
• Gustavo Cevolani
• Alexander Christian
• Vincenzo Crupi
• Serena Doria
• Christian J. Feldbacher-Escamilla
• Branden Fitelson
• Konstantin Genin
• Federico Giri
• Stephan Hartmann
• Catherine Herfeld
• Hykel Hosni
• Simona Naspetti
• Miklos Redei
• Lorenzo Rossi
• Dunja Seselja
• Vlasta Sikimić
• Jan Sprenger
• Jacob Stegenga
• Borut Trpin
• Giovanni Valente
• Gregory Wheeler
• Jon Williamson
• James Woodward
• Raffaele Zanoli

The city

Ancona is a captivating city situated along the stunning Adriatic coast, renowned for its abundance of natural and cultural splendor, as well as its exceptional cuisine and wines. For more information, please visit: https://anconatourism.it/en/

Wi-Fi network

You can use a university Wi-Fi connection during the conference in the Faculty of Economics building (where the conference will take place). The name of the network is conference@univpm, and the password is ANKON2024.

Venue

The conference will be held in the historic Caserma Villarey building, located in the old city of Ancona. Originally serving as military headquarters, the building now houses a faculty department of the Marche Polytechnic University.

Poster

All questions can be addressed to michalpsikorski@gmail.com .

Project funded under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.1 — Call for tender No. 1409/2022 of 14/09/2022 of the Italian Ministry of University and Research funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU. Award Number: P2022RT4AT_001, Concession Decree No. 1371 of 01/09/2023 adopted by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, CUP I53D23006890001, Controlling and Utilizing Uncertainty in the Health Sciences.